Build a Football Soccer Prediction Model: Poisson Distribution in Excel (instructions given)

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Create a predictive model for football games based on Poisson distribution.

An interest in Soccer and Sports Betting an advantage.

Take historical results to calculate the number of goals teams score and concede. These averages are compared to the league average and used to create values for attacking strength and defensive strength for every team, which are then turned into goal expectation figures. This metric is put into a Poisson Distribution formula which works out the probability of every result when two teams face each other. Then take these probabilities to create our own odds, compare these against the bookies’ odds, then identify where there is value in the market.

I would like to add the Poisson prediction to the Virtual Football Season 3163 Fixtures and Tables spreadsheet. This sheet is set up already to input the results of the matches in the Fixture and get the League Table.

The attached Word Document contains all the indstructions.

I have also attached a working sample prediction model for the English Premier League so you can see a similar working model. I have many seasons (over 100) Historical Data to enter as in the 3511 spreadsheet.

Excel

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